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The largest IPO in six months slashed its valuation and broke issue. Is this a sign of a troubled IPO market?
Probably not - just one troubled deal.
Liquefied natural gas exporter Venture Global (NYSE: VG) raised $1.8 billion at a $67 billion market cap, the biggest energy deal in over a decade. After pitching an initial range of $40-$46, the company dropped its offer price by 42% and went public at $25, then traded $1 below offer (-4%). It was the biggest price cut for a billion-dollar deal in our 30+ year records.
The buy-side is still cautious when it comes to valuation, and expects a real IPO discount. Venture Global was pitched at a premium to Cheniere Energy, but there were enough unknowns that investors valued it in-line. For now, new stocks need to show a bit more execution before investors pay up.
Our analyst was quoted saying there’d be more activity, of course, “if we saw investors were willing to pay any price for these IPOs.” But the 2025 IPO rebound is still on track. Valuation pushback is normal and healthy.
Besides, broader market signals are positive. The IPO Index is near a 3-year high and the S&P 500 hit an all-time high. The average sizable 2024 IPO is 32% above issue. Five more deals joined the pipeline this week, featuring defense (KRMN), banking (NPB), power production (ONE), and biotech (AARD, AURN).
Four IPOs are scheduled for next week. It’ll be a homecoming of sorts for the week’s largest deal, pork producer Smithfield Foods (Nasdaq: SFD), which was taken private in 2013 by a Chinese food group.
New stocks had another solid week, with the IPO Index up +1.4%, vs. the S&P 500 up +1.7%. One of the less-loved AI plays, Tempus AI, shot up +46.2% to take this week’s crown, following the release of a new AI-enabled personal health concierge app. Meanwhile, high-flying AI-focused chip producer Astera Labs landed at the bottom this week, off -13.3% amid an analyst downgrade.
Take care,
Bill Smith
CEO and Founder
Renaissance Capital
Biggest price changes through
Jan 24th
in the
Renaissance IPO Index
|
||
---|---|---|
Top 5 | ||
Tempus AI | TEM | 46.2% |
Arm Holdings | ARM | 8.9% |
Klaviyo | KVYO | 8.7% |
OneStream | OS | 6.0% |
StandardAero | SARO | 5.7% |
Bottom 5 | ||
Astera Labs | ALAB | -13.3% |
Nextracker | NXT | -7.2% |
Kenvue | KVUE | -1.5% |
Bausch + Lomb | BLCO | -1.0% |
Instacart (Maplebear) | CART | -0.7% |
Sectors | ||
Health Care | 22.6% | |
Financials | 3.2% | |
Real Estate | 3.1% | |
Consumer Discretionary | 2.5% | |
Technology | 2.4% | |
Industrials | 0.5% | |
Consumer Staples | -1.5% |
Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSE symbol: IPO) tracks the Renaissance IPO Index
The Renaissance IPO Index returned 1.4% last week vs. 1.7% for the S&P 500.