US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

We’re done playing it safe.

For the past two years, we’ve referred to the gradual recovery of the IPO market. We saw green shoots that signaled the beginning of a pickup.

Now we’re ready to call it: IPO activity will fully normalize in 2025.

When you dig into the data, it’s not such a daring prediction. IPO proceeds were up 50% this year. Another 50% increase would put us at $45 billion, right around historical averages. The recent IPO bottleneck has created a massive backlog, and while many are content to wait (see: SpaceX), public market valuations are now high enough to entice dozens of pre-IPO tech startups to list.

Much ink has been spilled on the relative lack of deals lately, and indeed our newly-released US IPO Annual Review calls 2024 a “Solid but Underwhelming Year for IPO Activity.” What gets less attention is that IPO investors did well this year. The average sizable deal returned +27%. The four largest VC-backed tech IPOs averaged a +205% return.

After the sharp sell-off in 2022, the current 2-year IPO rally paves the way for a 2025 rebound.

Be sure to download the report. Check out pages 12 & 13 to see 35 companies that are on track to list in 2025 (IPO Pro only).

No major IPOs this week, just four Chinese micro-caps listing on the Nasdaq. Liquefied natural gas producer Venture Global (NYSE: VG) filed for an IPO that could raise $3 billion, set to list in January.

Markets tumbled when the Fed surprised markets by penciling in only two rate cuts in 2025. The IPO Index pulled back -3.7% while the S&P 500 declined -2.0%. Marketing tech platform Klaviyo was the week’s winner, up +12.9%, and marking a +96% rally over the past six months. Precision medicine company Tempus AI was once again the bottom performer, off -13.3%, with chip maker Arm close behind.

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.