US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The stock market is firing on all cylinders and yet the IPO calendar is empty.

It’s hard to blame market conditions (though a few IPOs will try).

To recap: This week's inflation data was promising and rate cuts are back in view. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit all-time records. The Renaissance IPO Index jumped +6.5%, near a 2-year high.

So where are the IPOs?

Two thoughts:

1. Not many IPOs want to be first. Despite the rally in tech stocks, IPO investors have been cautious around pricing, and want bigger discounts until they see a consistent stream of winners. Many companies can afford to wait for others to be the guinea pigs. Reddit has $1.2 billion in cash, enough to stay private another 10+ years if it wanted to at its last burn rate. AKA the Stripe route.

2. It takes time to prep an IPO. Even after hiring banks, advisors, and the right personnel, it can still take 3-5 months to go from confidential filing to trading on an exchange.

But rest assured, the pipeline is building as we head into spring. Reddit and Astera Labs can launch as early as next week. Product testing firm UL Solutions updated its S-1 ahead of a possible billion-dollar deal. This week alone we saw 2024 IPO rumors from fintech Klarna, trading platform eToro, and data storage firm Egnyte. Another brokerage, Webull, announced it'll go public via SPAC merger worth $7 billion.

This week the Renaissance IPO Index (+6.5%) trounced the S&P 500 (+0.9%). Duolingo has learned Wall Street’s language, soaring +33.5% on a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Crypto exchange Coinbase jumped +24.0%, riding a surge in Bitcoin prices and trading volumes. Ad analytics platform DoubleVerify was the week’s IPO loser, trading down -25.8% on softer-than-expected forward guidance.