US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The headlines declared that the Amer Sports (NYSE: AS) IPO “fell short” and was “disappointing” with a “tepid debut.”

And yet we consider it a success. Here’s why.

Investors pushed hard on valuation, the deal priced well below the range, and public investors made money. The stock returned +3% on day one, and then another +12% on Friday. So far, so good.

Sure, the company hoped for a higher valuation, but a disappointed seller can mean an opportunistic buyer. In a normal year, about a quarter of IPOs price below the range. And it’s clear that more institutional investors are happy to walk away from IPOs that don't look like a slam dunk.

Mixed trading from the other week’s deals; a clinical-stage depression biotech (ANRO; +29%) and a clinical-stage medical device maker for obesity (GUTS; -14%).

If this IPO recovery feels shaky, well, they often do.

The Fed kept rates unchanged, and a strong jobs report added another reason for the pendulum to swing back to “higher for longer.” Lower rates would speed up IPO activity, but the long-term upcycle is holding firm.

Four deals are set to raise a combined $1.7 billion next week: a healthcare REIT (AHR), a Mexican grocery chain (TBBB), a specialty insurer (TFG), and an autoimmune disease biotech (KYTX).

This week the US IPO market returned +1.1% vs. +1.4% for the S&P 500, which closed Friday at a record high. Solar equipment maker Nextracker was the week’s IPO winner, up +33.2% on a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Software unicorn Klaviyo nabbed the #2 spot. Value-based care platform Privia Health Group traded off -9.4%.