US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

Doing things a bit different in this week's newsletter and… reporting that new stocks traded up.

The Renaissance IPO Index finished the week with a +7.5% gain while the S&P 500 rose +5.7%. President Trump’s 90-day pause on most tariffs sent the IPO Index rocketing up +12.8% on Wednesday, the best day on record since its 2009 launch.

Short-lived rallies are a hallmark of bear markets, so we’re not out of the woods yet. But if stocks do hold up, this is just about the starkest example of a favorite investing axiom: You gotta be in it to win it. In the stock market, time and volatility are the cost of admission to see the performance.

Still, “tariff whiplash” and ongoing uncertainty around trade policy will weigh on US IPO activity. The VIX Volatility Index is still close to 40. Our senior strategist told Business Insider that we’d need to see the VIX stay below 25 for several consecutive weeks before we get a meaningful pickup in deals. Here's why:

Six micro-caps went public this week, most of which have ties to China or Singapore. Traders have been drawn to small floats and the chance of a quick pop (looking at you Diginex). As always, caveat emptor.

Remarkably, two larger IPOs joined the calendar after the mid-week rally, set to list on the Nasdaq on Thursday. Fast-growing Chinese tea chain Chagee (Nasdaq: CHA) is raising about $400 million at a $5 billion market cap. Just over half of the deal is pre-sold to cornerstone investors, mostly based in China. Drone maker AIRO Group (Nasdaq: AIRO) is raising $75 million in a play on global defense spending.

The IPO Index had the same top and bottom performers as last week. Aircraft components maker Loar Holdings jumped +27.2%, followed by tech and consumer discretionary firms. Chinese self-driving vehicle developer Pony AI again came in last, off -17.3%, amid an escalating US-China trade war.

Next week is Easter Sunday, so no newsletter.