Spotify Technology (SPOT) filed an updated prospectus disclosing that 3.0 million shares have changed hands in March so far. The per-share prices in these private transactions range from $48.93 to $125.00, compared to $95.00 to $127.50 during February. The March range implies a valuation between $9 billion and $23 billion ($25 billion fully-diluted).
Spotify cautions that private transactions may have no relation to the price it receives in public markets.
As a direct listing, its opening public price will be determined by buy and sell orders collected from broker-dealers. But the new range underscores the fact that Spotify's initial trading will likely be far more volatile than a traditional IPO. Several billion dollars worth of shares can hit the market when it lists, with an untested process for price discovery. Spotify's novel listing is not underwritten, has no book building, and will not have a stabilizing agent once shares begin trading. Insiders could dump their shares en masse. Or not sell any shares.
And those are just risks related to the method of selling the deal. Finding the right valuation is tricky, given that Spotify is still highly unprofitable and has no direct public peers. No wonder its valuation has ranged from $9 billion to $25 billion in the last 15 days.
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