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Are US IPOs of Chinese companies a safe bet on the first day?

June 9, 2016

Even as the 2016 IPO market lags the prior year by deal count (34 IPOs; -53%), proceeds ($5.5B raised; -58%) and filings (49 submissions; -54%), US IPO activity of China-based companies has kept pace with 2015. Including Thursday's China Online Education (51Talk; COE), the three Chinese companies listing in the US have raised more proceeds ($204 million) than the entire class of 2015. A look at all China ADR listings since 2012 shows general safety on the first day: Only 3 of the 28 IPOs (11%) to raise more than $40 million had a negative first-day return, compared to 25% for their non-Chinese counterparts. However, first-day pops have trended down over the past two years: The five deals since 2015 have an average first-day of +5% (compared to +13% for non-China). Ahead of 51Talk's $46 million offering, it is also worth noting that the four Chinese companies that raised less than $70 million currently trade below their offer price.

US IPOs from Chinese Companies*
Year # IPOs Median
Deal Size
# Down on
First Day
Avg. First-Day 
Return
Avg. Total
Return
2016 2 $130
0   +9% +13%
2015
3   $75
1   +2% +8%
2014 14  $145
1 +13% -5%
2013   $79
0 +47% +53%
2012   $77
1     -4%  +1,093%
*Includes IPOs that raised more than $40 million