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Renaissance Capital's February IPO Market Update

March 11, 2025

Eighteen IPOs raised a combined $2.8 billion in February, well above the 10-year historical average (12 IPOs, $2.1B). Micro-caps dominated deal flow, but five issuers completed offerings of $100 million or more, led by SailPoint (SAIL), which raised $1.4 billion. Markets stumbled in the second half of the month as tariff fears and persistent inflation caused volatility to spike, and the Renaissance IPO Index slid -10%, compared to a -1.3% decline for the S&P 500. February IPOs averaged a -1% loss, though the larger February IPOs delivered a modest 4% return at month end, as first-day gains (+15%) were wiped out by weak aftermarket trading (-7%). Most of the group's performance was driven by space and defense play Karman (KRMN; +43% from IPO). A few sizable issuers joined the pipeline, though there were fewer additions in the second half of the month than anticipated, signaling a muted March. New blank check issuance and de-SPAC activity held steady. Eight blank check companies went public in January and 11 joined the pipeline, while five mergers were completed and four were announced. The end of the 1Q is on the horizon, and while volatility may dampen IPO issuance in the near term, pipeline additions and private company news continue to indicate a potential pickup heading into the 2Q.

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Largest IPOs
Fiver issuers completed offerings of $100+ million in February to raise a combined $2.6 billion, roughly in line with the 10-year average (6 IPOs, $1.9B). The five accounted for 92% of monthly proceeds and featured a range of businesses.

Software firm SailPoint led the month's deals, raising $1.4 billion in its return to public markets. The company offered more shares and priced at the high end of the upwardly revised range. However, initial demand appeared to dissipate and the stock fell -4% on day one, before recovering slightly to a 4% gain by month-end.

Space and defense play Karman Space & Defense followed, pricing an upsized offering above the range to raise $506 million. Karman was very well received, benefiting from sector tailwinds and a strong project backlog. The company popped 37% and traded up from there through month end.

The month's other sizable deals included cement production carve-out Titan America, cystic fibrosis biotech Sionna Therapeutics, and Michigan-based bank Northpointe Bancshares. Sionna delivered strong early trading, and Titan saw modest initial demand, but both finished below issue. Northpointe hovered around its offer price and finished flat.

While not included below, metabolic disease biotech Aardvark Therapeutics priced at the low end to raise $94 million, narrowly missing its initial $100 million target. It ended the month off -20%.


Best and Worst Performers
February IPOs delivered mostly positive trading, with two-thirds finishing above issue. However, heavy losses from some small issuers weighed down the overall average return from offer to -1%.

Karman led the best performers with a 43% return at month end, followed by two small issuers, Chinese ad services provider LZ Technology and golf club operator Aureus Greenway. The worst performers included larger biotech Sionna and two small that names finished with losses of -78% or more: Singapore building services provider FBS Global and corporate event planner TEN Holdings.


IPO Pipeline
Seventeen companies submitted initial filings in February, a decrease from the prior month (29) but above the month's 10-year average (14). Three issuers filed to raise $100 million or more, dampening expectations of a pickup in sizable deal flow in March. At month-end, the IPO pipeline stood at 176 companies looking to raise nearly $7 billion, including 109 in the "active pipeline" that have filed or updated within the last 90 days, 10 of which are expected to raise at least $100 million.

The month's three sizable filings included medical device maker Kestra Medical Technologies (which priced in early March), adtech MNTN, and aerospace and defense company AIRO Group. Other notable filers included Bgin Blockchain, which makes cryptocurrency mining equipment.


Private Company Watchlist
Renaissance Capital's Private Company Watchlist (PCW) stands at 243 companies. Two of the February's IPOs came from our PCW (SAIL and TTAM). We made seven additions to the PCW during the month.

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SPACs
Eight blank check IPOs raised a combined $1.5 billion in February, all but one of which raised more than $100 million. Ten new SPACs submitted initial filings, and there were four merger announcements, five completions, one deal termination, and no liquidations. The month's larger de-SPACs included Singapore-based video game publisher GCL Global (GCL) and crypto financial services firm Fold (FLD).


IPO Index
The Renaissance IPO Index (IPOUSA), the underlying index for the Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSE Ticker: IPO), slid -10.1% in February, underperforming the S&P 500, which posted a -1.3% loss. Markets traded mostly flat until rising macroeconomic concerns caused a sell-off through the end of the month. The IPO Index is designed to hold a portfolio of the largest and most liquid US IPOs from the past three years, and top holdings include Kenvue, Arm Holdings, Kaspi.kz, Corebridge Financial, and Astera Labs.