As of Tuesday's close, this year's 10 sizable US IPOs ($50mm+) averaged a return of +9.4%, with 8 of the 10 trading above their offer price. Top performers include obesity biotech Metsera (MTSR; 71% above offer) and diabetes device maker Beta Bionics (BBNX; 33%).
However, while IPOs average a modest gain, investors in 2025 listings are in the red on a weighted average basis. Weighting each of the larger IPOs by deal size, the year's 10 sizable offerings have returned -5.1%, dragged down by the disastrous performance of the largest IPO of 2025, LNG exporter Venture Global (VG; $1.8B deal size), which closed Tuesday at $16.50, 34% below its $25 offer price.
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Said another way, the roughly $4.3 billion worth of shares sold to IPO investors in 2025 is currently worth $4.1 billion. Venture Global alone has produced a $595 million loss as of Tuesday's close, more than offsetting the gains from the year's other IPOs.
While 2025's IPO activity has not had the explosive start some had hoped for, January and February are typically slow months for capital markets, and we expect a firmer IPO rebound to take shape in the spring and summer.
For one, Venture Global is only one deal. Already, its negative impact is somewhat limited to new offerings in the energy space, and it will be mitigated further as more deals price and (hopefully) perform better.
On that point, SailPoint (SAIL) raised the proposed range on Tuesday ahead of its IPO this week, in an apparent sign of demand for the largest tech IPO in over a year. The enterprise security software seller plans to raise $1.1 billion at the new midpoint. While this is a PE-backed deal, dozens of VC-backed tech companies waiting in the backlog will no doubt look to SailPoint as an indicator of IPO market temperature.
In addition, last year's $50mm+ IPOs have performed very well, averaging a 23.2% return from offer, or 45.8% on a weighted average basis. Technology IPOs lead with an 84% return.
Lastly, the Renaissance IPO Index (symbol: IPOUSA), which holds a basket of the largest and most liquid new stocks from the past three years, is currently up 6.0% year-to-date, compared to 3.2% for the S&P 500 and 1.7% for the Nasdaq Composite.
